Transport/
Road Transportation
Light Duty Gasoline Trucks

The operation of light-duty gasoline trucks is Canada's third-largest emissions sector. While engine efficiency continues to improve, Canada's population continues to grow, and larger vehicles such as SUVs have become more popular. Crossover SUVs, SUVs, and minivans are included in this emissions sector. The technology of plug-in hybrid and EV alternatives to internal combustion engines offers a promising pathway for emissions reduction.

In the chart, the Historical values come from Environment Canada, the Baseline projection is that emissions in this sector remain proportional to Canada's population (projected to grow geometrically), and the Combo-A Strategies curve represents a prediction based on the adoption of all Combo A strategies, which may or may not include any with impact to this sector.

Causes of Emissions

This sector measures emissions from the combustion of gasoline from vehicles such as

  • SUVs / Crossovers: (e.g., Ford Explorer, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V)
  • Minivans: (e.g., Dodge Caravan, Honda Odyssey)
  • Pickup Trucks: (e.g., Ford F-150, Chevy Silverado)
  • Commercial Vans: (e.g., Ford Transit Connect)
Definition of this class of vehicles: Vehicles with a GVWR of less than 3,900 kg (8,500 lbs) that are designed for off-road operation, or have a certain cargo capacity that places them above light-duty gasoline vehicles, which is a separate IPCC emissions sector focused on sedans, hatchbacks, and coupes.

The reasons for the utilization vehicles in this class are numerous (TODO: enumerate and quantify segments).

How might Canada reduce these emissions to zero?

Critical Success Factors

The arithmetic of emissions in this sector is such that there are two ways to reduce emissions:
  1. Reduce vehicle distance travelled
  2. Reduce average emissions per vehicle distance travelled

Barriers

  • People like to drive, and they like to drive at high speeds, in relative privacy inside spacious personal vehicles
  • Vehicle usage patterns have become an integral part of many people's work roles and domestic lifestyles. People struggle to trade convenience and habit for the sake of incremental cost reduction or environmental impact.
  • Vehicles are only replaced on average every 10 years (TODO: verify).
  • The total cost of ownership comparison for EVs and PHEVs vs. ICE vehicles depends on several factors, not all of which are top-of-mind for buyers, and the technology keeps improving (which discourages mainstream and late-adopters).
  • The sale price for EVs is higher than ICE vehicles, except for current possibly-illegally-subsidized Chinese EVs.
  • EVs are slower to charge, have less range than ICE vehicles, and can be charged at fewer places.

Key Stakeholder Groups

  • Domestic Fuel Customers Gasoline
  • Domestic Fuel Vendors Gasoline
  • Individuals and Families
  • Light Duty Gasoline Truck Insurers
  • Light Duty Gasoline Truck Mechanics
  • Light Duty Gasoline Truck Vendors
  • Light Duty Truck Fleet Operators
  • Light Duty Vehicle Owners
  • Parking Lot Owners
  • Regulators
  • Voters

Possible Strategies (feel free to help flesh these out, contribute more)

Description Cost / tonne CO2e
Sell some quota of Chinese EVs (increasing supply of ZEVs)
Embed wireless chargers in roads
Subsidize EV and EV-charger purchases indefinitely with a gasoline tax
Force civilian federal, provincial, and municipality-owned fleets to transition almost completely to EVs
Force military-owned fleets to transition to EVs
Force civilian federal, provincial, and municipality-owned fleets to transition almost completely to EVs -0.00 CAD / metric_ton