Cattle Population AR (Scaling Simulation)

This page visualizes some of the key time series of the Cattle Population AR barrier in the Scaling simulation.

Description

Historical actuals followed by auto-regressive model of future cattle population, followed by constant cyclic repetition of a constant pair of january and july values. The autoregressive weights permit a linear modelling of the birth of calves from cows, and their growing up as heifers and steers etc. That said, the basic dynamics at that level have started to change since around 2016 with the innovation of sexed semen. Sexed semen allows about 30% of top-producing cows to conceive exclusively female calves, at a sufficient rate to maintain the herd on a farm (and satisfy the farm's quota to produce milk). Cows must conceive calves roughly once a year to continue to producing milk, so the possibility of sexed semen can also be used for the remaining 70% of cows to produce male cross-breeds that are suitable for the beef market. This so-called "beef on dairy" practice changes the beef population dynamics. In terms of the linear autoregressive model, this practice changes the rates at which dairy cows yield calves that become dairy heifers, and links dairy cows to the steer population. There isn't enough data to train and test a new linear model on the years since 2016, so I just note this as an un-modelled phenomenon that could be reflected in a future model. https://www.fcc-fac.ca/en/knowledge/beef-on-dairy-changing-canadas-beef-supply The model does not include features of the historical or projected climate (e.g. cold spells requiring more feed in winter, drought-triggered selling in summer, extreme heat or cold interfering with calving). To include this sort of thing, consider deriving features from e.g. # https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/index.php?page=CMIP6-statistical-downscaling The model does not include features of historical or projected domestic or international supply or demand (e.g. beef, milk, feed, land). The model does not include features of price.

Time Series Defined by this Dynamic Element

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