Transport/
Road Transportation
Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles
Emissions from Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles (cars) are on the decline. Partly this is because of improvements in efficiency, partly it is because of a transition to EVs, and partly because of a trend to using larger vehicles which are classified by a different accounting sector (Light-Duty Trucks). The IPCC accounting sector does not differentiate commercial and personal use.
In black: the reference values from Environment and Climate Change Canada's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report (NIR). In the shaded region, the emissions from "Cars" in the Natural Resource Canada's National Energy Use Database (NEUD).
Causes of Emissions
This sector measures emissions from the combustion of gasoline from vehicles such as
- Sedans: (e.g., Nissan Altima, Honda Accord)
- Hatchbacks: (e.g., Volkswagen Golf)
- Coupes: (e.g., Mazda Miata)
How might Canada reduce emissions in this sector?
Critical Success Factors
Some combination of the following is required:
- Reduce number of gasoline vehicles of this class
- Reduce distance travelled by this class of vehicle under gasoline power
- Improve gasoline engine efficiency
Barriers
Before we get into barriers, it must be stated that the obvious and preeminent strategy for emissions reduction in this sector is a transition to EVs.
- Identity: Brand marketing plays a strong role in car puchasing decisions. Vehicle choices have become an integral part of many people's professional and personal image.
- Longevity: Annual vehicles sales in this class account for about 10% of the number of vehicle registrations. It could take decades to change the technology mix within this sector.
- EV Range: Battery power density is such that EVs cannot yet match the range that's possible using a large gasoline tank. Charging a battery isn't as convenient as refilling a tank.
- EV Sticker Price: Non-hybrid internal combustion vehicles are cheaper than hybrid and EV variants, similar models.
- EV Cost Complexity: The total cost of ownership comparison for EVs and PHEVs is less than ICE vehicles in many use cases, but the calculation depends on several factors, not all of which are top-of-mind or even well-known to buyers.
- EV Pace of Deprecation: The relatively rapidly evolving technology in EVs may discourage some buyers (holding out for e.g. better range at lower cost next year), and some sellers (who wish their mid-life EVs commanded higher resale prices).
- EV Range Anxiety: Managing a battery charge level is different from keeping a gasoline tank full. In some cases it's easier, but in some cases it's more difficult. EV charging infrastructure lags gasoline refuelling infrastructure by most of a century; charging an EV on the road can be an inconvenience, or a real challenge.
- Lithium batteries degrade in cold temperatures: Cold temperatures degrade lithium-ion battery performance quite badly, and more than gasoline engine performance. Sodium ion batteries are more robust to cold, may help in future designs.
- Gasoline engine efficiency is hard to improve: Gasoline engines have already been refined over almost a century of intense engineering. Higher fuel efficiency is possible, but such engines are expensive relative to their fuel savings.
Possible Strategies
| Description | Cost / tonne |
|---|---|
| Sell some quota of Chinese EVs (increasing supply of ZEVs) | |
| Improve EV batteries for EVs | |
| Placeholder for various "electric roads" (conductive rails, inductive transfer, and overhead lines) | |
| Bring back a carbon tax on retail gasoline | |
| Force civilian federal, provincial, and municipality-owned fleets to transition almost completely to EVs | |
| Force military-owned fleets to transition to EVs | |
| Develop 1000Wh/kg batteries for heavy-duty trucks |
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